In February this year, the North Carolina Commission on Workforce Development and the North Carolina Department of Commerce released the "State of the North Carolina Workforce: An Assessment of the State's Labor Force Demand and Supply, 2007-2017." The report takes a look at the patterns and trends in the state and regional economic and workforce development in order to identify the most critical policy challenges and opportunities for the state to compete successfully and meet the continued economic transformation challenges. Six major policy issues have been identified as a result of this analysis.

The first is that many mature, traditional industries continue to shed jobs. Declines continue in key industries like tobacco processing, textiles, apparel and furniture, which still employ more than one-third of the state's manufacturing workers. These losses have substantial consequences on small metropolitan and rural communities that have been reliant on one or two large employers.

Low-skill service jobs represent a major share of projected growth. In fact, more than 40 percent of the new jobs created in the state during the next ten years will require only short-term on-the-job training. These jobs pay about 60 percent of the state average and many do not require a high school diploma or equivalent, but they are less likely to offer full-time employment or benefits. People who fill these positions represent the working poor and have huge barriers to accessing education, training or support services that would help them move into higher skilled/wage jobs.

Thirdly, the state produces too many high school dropouts and too few post-secondary graduates. I believe it's important to recognize that each year, more than 20,000 students leave high school without a diploma. In today's increasingly knowledge-driven economy, post-secondary training and education are absolutely crucial to economic prosperity. Most newly created high-paying jobs require a basic set of communication, math, information technology and interpersonal skills.

Baby-boom retirements will also contribute to key talent shortages. It has been projected that during the next decade, the state' s workforce will lose about 61,000 workers each year to retirement. These retirements will result in many skilled and experienced workers leaving the workforce, making the state's current shortage even worse.

Additionally, low-skill in-migrants will create special challenges for N.C.'s education and training systems. With around 50 percent of the newest cohort of North Carolinians, the largest group being Hispanic, not having a high school diploma, new challenges will be raised. In 2007, the state's population will include 600,000 Hispanics. Taking into account the current growth rate, this group will be the state's largest minority group in 25 years.

The final issue raised is that some North Carolina regions successfully attract and retain skilled workers while others cannot generate demand. Talent seems to be mobile, but Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, and Asheville are attracting younger, skilled workers, while other parts are losing skilled workers to outside the state. For areas experiencing out-migration, young talent is seeking and finding opportunities in not only Charlotte and the Triangle, but also in Atlanta, New York and Washington.

I find it most interesting that over the next decade, the state projects adding nearly 700,000 new jobs and 1.3 million people. Even though the state's population growth is expected to outpace the national average, the state is still expecting a talent shortage. This is because the state's economy is creating a substantial number of higher skilled jobs, demanding higher skill sets and offering better wages. The challenge to the state's workforce and educational system will be preparing citizens to take advantage of the better-paying, higher skilled jobs.

In reviewing where the shortages are, the greatest number appears in the "new middle" and higher-end jobs that require post-secondary education and long-term on-the-job training. Annually for the next ten years, four-year and advanced degree programs need to increase their capacity to fill a gap where the state's economy needs about 15,000 more program completers per year. The state's community colleges need to generate nearly 19,000 more completers each year to meet the projected needs for those with associate degrees and occupational licenses.

So, there will be a lot of jobs available. As the economy changes, business and industry will demand an increasingly educated and skilled workforce. The greatest demand for "new middle" jobs will be in health care practitioners, and support & technical occupations. "High end" jobs in management, business, and financial & administration occupations will also see the biggest annual demand.

Based on occupational projections and current data, employers will have a difficult time filling both high end and new middle jobs because the state university and community college system cannot generate enough potential workers to meet projected industry needs. If the educational systems were charged with meeting all of the anticipated needs, they would need to have an additional 39,000 program completers per year for the next ten years.